Soil Microbes Speed up Global Warming

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Tim Radford / Climate News Network.

As the world warms so does much of the planet’s basic matter, thanks to its subterranean citizens, the soil microbes, intent on putting more energy into the important business of decay and recycling.

As a consequence, everywhere, more carbon dioxide escapes into the atmosphere, according to a new study. And since there is at least twice as much carbon in the soil – mostly in the form of plant detritus – as there is in the atmosphere, the discovery is ominous.

With more of the greenhouse gas escaping from soil to air, so the rate at which the world warms picks up speed, to accelerate yet further soil respiration.

US researchers report in the journal Nature that they looked at results from more than 1,500 studies and data from more than 500 monitoring towers around the world that measure temperature, rainfall and other evidence, to conclude that between 1990 and 2014 the rate of soil respiration has increased by 1.2%.

“It’s important to note that this is a finding based on observations in the real world. This is not a tightly controlled lab experiment,” said first author Ben Bond-Lamberty of the Joint Global Change Research Institute, partnered by the US Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Maryland.

“With rising soil respiration rates, you won’t have an intact land carbon sink forever”

“Soils around the globe are responding to a warming climate, which in turn can convert more carbon into carbon dioxide which enters the atmosphere. Depending on how other components of the carbon cycle might respond due to climate warming, these soil changes can potentially contribute to even higher temperatures due to a feedback loop.”

The role of soil microbes remains one of the great unknowns in the climate conundrum. A microbe – bacterium or fungus – is tiny but vital. Single-celled creatures managed the living world for two billion years before the first complex animals and plants, turning carbon dioxide into carbon and oxygen, and then converting dead lifeforms back into new raw materials for life.

And their numbers are huge: so vast that terrestrial bacteria add up to 70 billion tons of living carbon, and fungi another 12 billion tons, according to a recent estimate. Together these microbes weigh 40 times as much as all the animals on the planet.

And for years climate scientists have puzzled about the impact of warming on the silent living things under foot and out of sight. They identified the microbial world as key to the puzzle of the carbon budget and wondered about the rate at which soils could absorb carbon and store it. They have also warned that, in a warmer world, soil microbes might become more active.

Research vindicated

The latest study seems to suggest that they are right. Carbon dioxide is being exhaled back into the atmosphere at a faster rate. Around 25 years ago, microbes accounted for 54% of soil respiration. Now they account for 63%.

If correct, this is a case of what engineers call positive feedback: humans burn fossil fuels, emit carbon stored deep underground 100 million years ago, and raise planetary temperatures. And as this happens, carbon once buried in the shallow soils – some that might otherwise in many millions of years become fossilised as coal – escapes to the surface as greenhouse gas, to create even more warming.

“We know with high precision that global temperatures have risen,” Dr Bond-Lamberty said. “We’d expect that to stimulate microbes to be more active. And that is precisely what we’ve detected.

“Land is thought to be a robust sink of carbon overall, but with rising soil respiration rates, you won’t have an intact land carbon sink forever.”

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All Governments Lie

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Amy Goodman and Denis Moynihan.

“All governments lie,” said legendary journalist I.F. Stone. He relentlessly reported on the powerful and the corrupt, and for almost 20 years, until his retirement in 1971, independently wrote I.F. Stone’s Weekly, an acerbic and incisive publication that broke news regularly. He revealed how President Lyndon Johnson deceptively exploited the 1964 Tonkin Bay incident to escalate U.S. involvement in Vietnam. He produced some of the most impactful investigative reporting on the tobacco industry and the power it held over Congress. I.F. Stone’s assertion that all governments lie has stood the test of time, and seems remarkably apt now, during the era of President Donald Trump, perhaps the most prodigious liar among all U.S. presidents. When the news media accurately reports on Trump’s baldfaced lies, he attacks, calling the press “the enemy of the people.” Members of the White House press corps, who are the principal recipients of Trump’s constant pejoratives, increasingly express concern for their safety at Trump’s many campaign-style rallies, where he revs up the crowd against them.

“I’m so proud of myself; I didn’t call them the ‘fake-news media,'” Trump said Monday at Fort Drum, in upstate New York. “I said to myself, I will not today, in front of our great armed forces, call them fake news. (Laughter.) We know the real truth, but we won’t say it today.” In bragging of his restraint, he twice labeled the media “fake news.” Trump will not relent, and certainly will never change.

Trump relies on the news media to repeat, and thus amplify, his hateful messages. Several news channels have taken the important step of not carrying his rallies live, from start to finish. It was that shameful practice that delivered over $1 billion in free airtime to the Trump campaign. But his tweets must be reported. A court ruled them to be official White House statements, and they actually shape policies. The depth of his racism, his misogyny, his Islamophobia and his viciousness is as newsworthy as it is grotesque. This week he called Omarosa Manigault Newman, his fired, former top African-American woman staffer, “that dog.” Earlier, he tweeted about an NBA basketball star who has just opened a new school: “Lebron James was just interviewed by the dumbest man on television, Don Lemon. He made Lebron look smart, which isn’t easy to do.” Both men are African-American, as is respected Congressmember Maxine Waters, whom Trump called “an extraordinarily low IQ person.” He not only insults African-Americans, but all of us in the process.

The best reply to Trump’s hostility to the press is more investigative reporting. One problem is that obsessive speculation about the progress of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Trump and Russian election meddling crowds out other vital stories.

Take that Fort Drum event, for example. Trump was there to ceremoniously sign the National Defense Authorization Act, and he was roundly criticized in the media for failing to mention Sen. John McCain, after whom the bill was named. McCain has been one of Trump’s most vocal Republican critics, and now is suffering advanced brain cancer. Trump’s omission was considered offensive and petty, reminiscent of how in 2016 he insulted McCain’s military service in Vietnam, saying: “He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured? I like people that weren’t captured.”

But what about the sheer scale of the bipartisan defense bill that Trump signed? The $717 billion of public funds committed to weaponry and war is the largest defense authorization in history. As Republicans attempt to shrink or eliminate so-called entitlements like Social Security and Medicaid, reporting on this unprecedented military budget should be at forefront of every newscast and above the fold on every newspaper.

The U.S.-backed Saudi-led war in Yemen is a story that demands daily reporting, but never receives it. Just this week, a school bus was bombed, with U.S. bombs, U.S. refueling of the bombers and U.S. logistics support. Fifty people were killed, 40 of them schoolchildren. Over 1 million Yemeni children are on the brink of starvation; many have starved to death already. Over 18 million Yemenis are hungry, and over 1 million have contracted cholera. It is the largest humanitarian crisis on the planet, yet we hear almost nothing about it.

Climate change deserves constant coverage. Sure, our climate change-denying president has called it a Chinese hoax. The news media must aggressively report on this global threat, especially the connection between climate change and extreme weather, like the forest fires consuming so much of California.

Donald Trump’s attacks on the free press, a vital cornerstone of our democracy, are despicable. More reporting, in the tradition of I.F. Stone, is the best remedy.

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Climate Strategy Needs Tailoring to the World’s Poorest

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Tim Radford / Climate News Network.

An effective climate strategy to protect everyone on Earth, and the natural world as well, is what the planet needs. But Austrian-based scientists have now confirmed something all climate scientists have suspected for more than a decade: there can be no simple, one-size-fits-all solution to the twin challenges of climate change and human poverty.

That catastrophic climate change driven by “business as usual” fossil fuel energy reliance will by 2100 impose devastating costs worldwide, and drive millions from their homes and even homelands,  has been repeatedly established.

So has the need to shift from fossil fuels to renewable resources, almost certainly by imposing some kind of “carbon tax” worldwide.

But a new study from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis warns that if agriculture is included in stringent climate mitigation schemes, there will be higher costs in the short term.

If humans don’t act, then climate change driven by global warming will create conditions that will put an extra 24 million people, or perhaps 50 million extra, at risk of hunger and malnutrition.

Crop yields could fall by 17%, and market prices could rise by 20% by 2050. And if they do act with a global carbon tax or its equivalent, then by 2050 an extra 78 million – or perhaps 170 million, many of them in sub-Saharan Africa and India – could be priced out of the food market.
So for many of the poorest people on the planet, the cure could be worse than the disease.

“The findings are important to help realize that agriculture should receive a very specific treatment when it comes to climate change policies,” said Tomoko Hasegawa, a systems engineer and researcher at IIASA, and of Japan’s National Institute for Environment Studies. He added:

Carbon pricing schemes will not bring any viable options for developing countries where there are highly vulnerable populations. Mitigation in agriculture should instead be integrated with development policies.

Thinking Ahead

Studies such as these should not be taken as excuses for doing nothing: they are precautionary exercises in foresight. All human acts impose some kind of environmental and social costs. Rich nations can absorb the price of climate mitigation. The poorest communities, ironically the ones most at risk from climate change, cannot.

Dr Hasegawa and her co-authors report in the journal Nature Climate Change that they looked at eight global agricultural models to analyze a range of outcomes for 2050.

Their scenarios contemplated socio-economic development options. These included the one in which the world actually pursued the sustainable programme implicitly agreed in 2015 in Paris, when 195 nations vowed to contain warming to “well below” 2°C by 2100.

They also included one in which the world followed current development trends, along with various levels of global warming, and various mitigation policies.

Possible Solutions

And the researchers concluded that, instead of simply focusing on reducing emissions, policymakers would have to look at the big picture.

Carbon taxes will in various forms raise the prices of food, in some models by 110%. But the same study offers potential solutions. Right now, grazing animals in the developing world produce three-fourths of the world’s ruminant greenhouse gases, but only half its milk and beef. So techniques used in the developed world could if introduced at the same time reduce greenhouse gas emissions, promote economic growth, reduce poverty and improve health in the poorest nations.

There are other options: money raised from carbon taxes could be used for food aid programmes to help those areas hardest hit. The point the researchers make is that when it comes to mitigation policies, governments and international organizations need to think carefully.

“Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its specific impacts and efforts to mitigate its impacts will be realized at national and local levels,” the scientists conclude. “As such, future research will be required to assess the unique local and national challenges to adapting to and mitigating climate change while also reducing food insecurity.”

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Humans Damaged Most of the World’s Oceans, Even Before Climate Change

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Tim Radford / Climate News Network.

Humans huddle on a small part of the Earth’s surface, but our activity on the rest will leave our descendants only diminished oceans. Thanks to us, the wilderness of the world’s wide seas has shrunk drastically.

Earth is a waterworld: 70% of it is swept by ocean. And 87% of this waterworld has been to some degree fouled, polluted, poisoned or impoverished by the actions of one almost entirely terrestrial mammal. That is, according to a new survey, only 13% of the high seas can now be considered true wilderness.

Terrestrial life is smeared thinly. It is concentrated almost entirely in an altitude bounded by tree roots and canopy. But all the ocean is habitable, from the tidal shallows to the abyssal plain. It is home to the greatest mountain chain on the planet and to the deepest chasms, and in all it makes up 99% of the living space on Earth.

Researchers who looked at 16 different kinds of watery realm and tested them for 15 different kinds of human impact – among them commercial shipping, sediment and fertiliser run-off, and overfishing – report in the journal Current Biology that humans had left their mark almost everywhere.

“We were astonished by just how little marine wilderness remains,” said Kendall Jones, a researcher at the University of Queensland in Australia, and also of the Wildlife Conservation Society.

Huge extent

“The ocean is immense, covering over 70% of our planet, but we’ve managed to significantly impact almost all of this vast ecosystem.”

The surviving watery wilderness is estimated at an area of 54 million square kilometres. Although this is seemingly an enormous tract – think of the land areas of Russia, China, Canada, the US and Australia rolled up together – it is still less than a seventh part of the sea surface.

Most of this “untouched” ocean is concentrated in the Arctic, the Antarctic, and around the more remote Pacific islands. Hardly any marine wilderness survives along the continental coastlines.

The study comes only weeks after a survey of land conservation areas – once again, led by researchers from the University of Queensland and the Wildlife Conservation Society – found that even those stretches of mountain, savannah, forest and wetland formally recognized by governments as nature reserves or conservation zones were in many cases significantly disturbed or degraded by human intrusion.

The plight of the high seas has been disturbing marine scientists and oceanographers for some time. They have repeatedly warned that human-driven climate change is affecting ocean temperatures and compromising the health of the ecosystems on which, for instance, commercial fisheries depend.

“Pristine wilderness areas hold massive levels of biodiversity and endemic species and are some of the last places on earth where big populations of apex predators are still found”

Human actions have created “dead zones” and great tracts of toxic algal growths fed by nutrients from the landPlastic waste has been found almost everywhere, and changes in water chemistry threaten many species at all depths.

But the Queensland study looks only at those measurable human impacts that are not connected with climate change: the implicit message is that acidification, sea level rise, and ocean temperature increase, all of them driven by profligate human combustion of fossil fuels, will ultimately affect even those areas of ocean defined as surviving wilderness.

Research of this nature is inevitably a matter of meticulous accounting: scientists comb through huge numbers of studies, and identify the data on which they can rely, and then find ways to test their hypothesis. This involved, for instance, checking the range and distribution of more than 21,000 marine species, and separately considering submarine kelp forests, coastal reefs, warm and temperate zones, the deep ocean and the polar waters.

Little protection

The researchers found that more than 8% of the wilderness was in the warm Indo-Pacific and that only 5% of the remaining marine wilderness enjoyed any formal governmental or international protection.

“Pristine wilderness areas hold massive levels of biodiversity and endemic species and are some of the last places on earth where big populations of apex predators are still found,” Kendall Jones said.

“This means the vast majority of marine wilderness could be lost at any time, as improvements in technology allow us to fish deeper and ship farther than ever before.

“Thanks to a warming climate, even some places that were once safe due to year-round ice cover can now be fished.”

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Battling 18 Blazes, California May Face Worst Fire Season

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by The Associated Press.

LAKEPORT, Calif. — The largest wildfire ever recorded in California needed just 11 days to blacken an area nearly the size of Los Angeles — and it’s only one of many enormous blazes that could make this the worst fire season in state history.

Some 14,000 firefighters from as far away as Florida and even New Zealand are struggling to curb 18 fires in the midst of a sweltering summer that has seen wind-whipped flames carve their way through national forest land and rural areas, threaten urban areas and incinerate neighborhoods.

“For whatever reason, fires are burning much more intensely, much more quickly than they were before,” said Mark A. Hartwig, president of the California Fire Chiefs Association.

California is seeing earlier, longer and more destructive wildfire seasons because of drought, warmer weather attributed to climate change and home construction deeper into the forests.

Some of the largest fires have erupted just within the past few weeks as the state has seen record-setting temperatures — and the historically worst months of wildfire season are still to come.

In Northern California, the record-setting Mendocino Complex — twin fires being fought as a single conflagration — gained ground Tuesday but more slowly because its own smoke covered the area and lowered the temperature, according to the California Department of Forestry.

The flames, which had burned 457 square miles (1,184 square kilometers), were raging in mostly remote areas and no deaths or serious injuries were reported but 75 homes were destroyed.

The blaze that broke out July 27 initially spread quickly because of what officials said was a perfect combination of weather, rugged topography and abundant brush and timber turned to tinder by years of drought.

Resources also were thin at first because thousands of firefighters already were battling a fire hundreds of miles north. That fire, which spread into the city of Redding, killed six people and destroyed more than 1,000 homes. The so-called Carr Fire was less than half contained.

In becoming the biggest fire in California history, the Mendocino Complex fire broke a record set just eight months ago. A blaze in Southern California in December killed two people, burned 440 square miles (1,140 square kilometers) and destroyed more than 1,000 buildings.

California’s firefighting costs have more than tripled from $242 million in the 2013 fiscal year to $773 million in the 2018 fiscal year that ended June 30, according to Cal Fire.

“We’re in uncharted territory,” Gov. Jerry Brown warned last week. “Since civilization emerged 10,000 years ago, we haven’t had this kind of heat condition, and it’s going to continue getting worse. That’s the way it is.”

___

Associated Press writers Don Thompson in Sacramento, California, and Lorin Eleni Gill and Olga Rodriguez in San Francisco also contributed to this report.

___

Follow AP’s wildfire coverage here: https://apnews.com/tag/Wildfires

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The Planet Could Be 1 Degree Celsius From Catastrophe, Major Study Finds

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Jon Queally / Common Dreams.

Warning of a possible domino effect as multiple climate feedback loops are triggered within a dynamic cascade of rising temperatures and warming oceans, scientists behind a frightening new study say that for the sake of humanity’s future they hope scenarios explored in their new models do not come to pass.

“I do hope we are wrong, but as scientists we have a responsibility to explore whether this is real,” Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, where the research was done, told the Guardian. “We need to know now. It’s so urgent. This is one of the most existential questions in science.”

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the new study, while not conclusive in its findings, warns that humanity may be just 1°C away from creatinga series of dynamic feedback loops that could push the world into a climate scenario not seen since the dawn of the Helocene Period, nearly 12,000 years ago.

The research, according to its abstract, explores “the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene.”

As Rockström explains, the “tipping elements” examined in the research “can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another.” And in an interview with the BBC, he added,  “What we are saying is that when we reach 2 degrees of warming, we may be at a point where we hand over the control mechanism to Planet Earth herself. We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium.”

tipping_points.jpg

Such feedback occurences, the authors of the study write, would pose “severe risks for health, economies, political stability, and ultimately, the habitability of the planet for humans.”

With Arctic ice and glaciers melting away; increasingly powerful and frequent storms in the Atlantic and Pacific; coral reefs dying from warming oceans; record-setting wildfires in the U.S.; unprecedented heatwaves in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere—climate researchers have been at the forefront of sounding the alarms about the frightening path humanity is now following.

“In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf, raising a false alarm: the wolves are now in sight,” said Dr. Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia, about the latest study. “The authors argue that we need to be much more proactive in that regard, not just ending greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as possible, but also building resilience in the context of complex Earth system processes that we might not fully understand until it is too late.”

In order to avoid the worst-case scenarios, the researchers behind the study say that “collective human action is required” to steer planet’s systems away from dangerous tipping points. “Such action,” they write, “entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.”

Read more

The Planet Could Be 1 Degree Celsius From Catastrophe, Major Study Finds

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Jon Queally / Common Dreams.

Warning of a possible domino effect as multiple climate feedback loops are triggered within a dynamic cascade of rising temperatures and warming oceans, scientists behind a frightening new study say that for the sake of humanity’s future they hope scenarios explored in their new models do not come to pass.

“I do hope we are wrong, but as scientists we have a responsibility to explore whether this is real,” Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, where the research was done, told the Guardian. “We need to know now. It’s so urgent. This is one of the most existential questions in science.”

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the new study, while not conclusive in its findings, warns that humanity may be just 1°C away from creatinga series of dynamic feedback loops that could push the world into a climate scenario not seen since the dawn of the Helocene Period, nearly 12,000 years ago.

The research, according to its abstract, explores “the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene.”

As Rockström explains, the “tipping elements” examined in the research “can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another.” And in an interview with the BBC, he added,  “What we are saying is that when we reach 2 degrees of warming, we may be at a point where we hand over the control mechanism to Planet Earth herself. We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium.”

tipping_points.jpg

Such feedback occurences, the authors of the study write, would pose “severe risks for health, economies, political stability, and ultimately, the habitability of the planet for humans.”

With Arctic ice and glaciers melting away; increasingly powerful and frequent storms in the Atlantic and Pacific; coral reefs dying from warming oceans; record-setting wildfires in the U.S.; unprecedented heatwaves in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere—climate researchers have been at the forefront of sounding the alarms about the frightening path humanity is now following.

“In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf, raising a false alarm: the wolves are now in sight,” said Dr. Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia, about the latest study. “The authors argue that we need to be much more proactive in that regard, not just ending greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as possible, but also building resilience in the context of complex Earth system processes that we might not fully understand until it is too late.”

In order to avoid the worst-case scenarios, the researchers behind the study say that “collective human action is required” to steer planet’s systems away from dangerous tipping points. “Such action,” they write, “entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.”

Read more

The Planet Could Be 1 Degree Celsius From Catastrophe, Major Study Finds

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Jon Queally / Common Dreams.

Warning of a possible domino effect as multiple climate feedback loops are triggered within a dynamic cascade of rising temperatures and warming oceans, scientists behind a frightening new study say that for the sake of humanity’s future they hope scenarios explored in their new models do not come to pass.

“I do hope we are wrong, but as scientists we have a responsibility to explore whether this is real,” Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, where the research was done, told the Guardian. “We need to know now. It’s so urgent. This is one of the most existential questions in science.”

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the new study, while not conclusive in its findings, warns that humanity may be just 1°C away from creatinga series of dynamic feedback loops that could push the world into a climate scenario not seen since the dawn of the Helocene Period, nearly 12,000 years ago.

The research, according to its abstract, explores “the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene.”

As Rockström explains, the “tipping elements” examined in the research “can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another.” And in an interview with the BBC, he added,  “What we are saying is that when we reach 2 degrees of warming, we may be at a point where we hand over the control mechanism to Planet Earth herself. We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium.”

tipping_points.jpg

Such feedback occurences, the authors of the study write, would pose “severe risks for health, economies, political stability, and ultimately, the habitability of the planet for humans.”

With Arctic ice and glaciers melting away; increasingly powerful and frequent storms in the Atlantic and Pacific; coral reefs dying from warming oceans; record-setting wildfires in the U.S.; unprecedented heatwaves in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere—climate researchers have been at the forefront of sounding the alarms about the frightening path humanity is now following.

“In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf, raising a false alarm: the wolves are now in sight,” said Dr. Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia, about the latest study. “The authors argue that we need to be much more proactive in that regard, not just ending greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as possible, but also building resilience in the context of complex Earth system processes that we might not fully understand until it is too late.”

In order to avoid the worst-case scenarios, the researchers behind the study say that “collective human action is required” to steer planet’s systems away from dangerous tipping points. “Such action,” they write, “entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.”

Read more

The Planet Could Be 1 Degree Celsius From Catastrophe, Major Study Finds

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Jon Queally / Common Dreams.

Warning of a possible domino effect as multiple climate feedback loops are triggered within a dynamic cascade of rising temperatures and warming oceans, scientists behind a frightening new study say that for the sake of humanity’s future they hope scenarios explored in their new models do not come to pass.

“I do hope we are wrong, but as scientists we have a responsibility to explore whether this is real,” Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, where the research was done, told the Guardian. “We need to know now. It’s so urgent. This is one of the most existential questions in science.”

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the new study, while not conclusive in its findings, warns that humanity may be just 1°C away from creatinga series of dynamic feedback loops that could push the world into a climate scenario not seen since the dawn of the Helocene Period, nearly 12,000 years ago.

The research, according to its abstract, explores “the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene.”

As Rockström explains, the “tipping elements” examined in the research “can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another.” And in an interview with the BBC, he added,  “What we are saying is that when we reach 2 degrees of warming, we may be at a point where we hand over the control mechanism to Planet Earth herself. We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium.”

tipping_points.jpg

Such feedback occurences, the authors of the study write, would pose “severe risks for health, economies, political stability, and ultimately, the habitability of the planet for humans.”

With Arctic ice and glaciers melting away; increasingly powerful and frequent storms in the Atlantic and Pacific; coral reefs dying from warming oceans; record-setting wildfires in the U.S.; unprecedented heatwaves in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere—climate researchers have been at the forefront of sounding the alarms about the frightening path humanity is now following.

“In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf, raising a false alarm: the wolves are now in sight,” said Dr. Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia, about the latest study. “The authors argue that we need to be much more proactive in that regard, not just ending greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as possible, but also building resilience in the context of complex Earth system processes that we might not fully understand until it is too late.”

In order to avoid the worst-case scenarios, the researchers behind the study say that “collective human action is required” to steer planet’s systems away from dangerous tipping points. “Such action,” they write, “entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.”

Read more

The Planet Could Be 1 Degree Celsius From Catastrophe, Major Study Finds

Read more of this story here from Truthdig RSS by Jon Queally / Common Dreams.

Warning of a possible domino effect as multiple climate feedback loops are triggered within a dynamic cascade of rising temperatures and warming oceans, scientists behind a frightening new study say that for the sake of humanity’s future they hope scenarios explored in their new models do not come to pass.

“I do hope we are wrong, but as scientists we have a responsibility to explore whether this is real,” Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre, where the research was done, told the Guardian. “We need to know now. It’s so urgent. This is one of the most existential questions in science.”

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the new study, while not conclusive in its findings, warns that humanity may be just 1°C away from creatinga series of dynamic feedback loops that could push the world into a climate scenario not seen since the dawn of the Helocene Period, nearly 12,000 years ago.

The research, according to its abstract, explores “the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a ‘Hothouse Earth’ pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene.”

As Rockström explains, the “tipping elements” examined in the research “can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another.” And in an interview with the BBC, he added,  “What we are saying is that when we reach 2 degrees of warming, we may be at a point where we hand over the control mechanism to Planet Earth herself. We are the ones in control right now, but once we go past 2 degrees, we see that the Earth system tips over from being a friend to a foe. We totally hand over our fate to an Earth system that starts rolling out of equilibrium.”

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Such feedback occurences, the authors of the study write, would pose “severe risks for health, economies, political stability, and ultimately, the habitability of the planet for humans.”

With Arctic ice and glaciers melting away; increasingly powerful and frequent storms in the Atlantic and Pacific; coral reefs dying from warming oceans; record-setting wildfires in the U.S.; unprecedented heatwaves in Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere—climate researchers have been at the forefront of sounding the alarms about the frightening path humanity is now following.

“In the context of the summer of 2018, this is definitely not a case of crying wolf, raising a false alarm: the wolves are now in sight,” said Dr. Phil Williamson, a climate researcher at the University of East Anglia, about the latest study. “The authors argue that we need to be much more proactive in that regard, not just ending greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as possible, but also building resilience in the context of complex Earth system processes that we might not fully understand until it is too late.”

In order to avoid the worst-case scenarios, the researchers behind the study say that “collective human action is required” to steer planet’s systems away from dangerous tipping points. “Such action,” they write, “entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.”

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