JPMorgan: There’s A 60% Chance Of A US Recession In The Next 2 Years

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Economists are always trying to predict when the next U.S. recession will happen.  

But according to Bloomberg, one new analysis says there's a substantial chance that it could occur in the next two years. 

A report from JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimates that the probability of the economy dipping into a recession within the next year is almost 28 percent. And according to their model, that chance increases to more than 60 percent over the next two years. 

The bank takes into consideration factors like consumer and business sentiment, labor participation and compensation growth in order to come to that conclusion.

JPMorgan's projection differs the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's, which tracks a 14.5 percent chance of a recession in one year. 

While no one knows exactly when it'll happen, other analyses have floated a similar time frame of one to two years. 

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Nearly 100 More Former Students Accuse USC Gyno Of Sexual Misconduct

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"The impact of my appointments with Dr. Tyndall went far beyond just discomfort while I was with him. It has impacted my ability to trust male physicians about sensitive topics and even with touching my body," Marie Nowacki, a former USC student, said.

That was just one of an additional 93 former students who came forward Thursday in two new lawsuits against University of Southern California gynecologist Dr. George Tyndall. 

CNN reports Tyndall was the only full-time gynecologist at the school's student health facility for 30 years. More than 50 students and alumni filed lawsuits in July against the former USC doctor, saying he sexually abused, harassed and molested them.

One of the women who came forward Thursday described feeling intimidated by Tyndall after she said he made "racially charged, sexist comments about black women's fertility, sexuality, and physicality."

"During small talk, after inquiring what I studied and my career aspirations, I shared that I was interested in opening businesses in low-income black communities, to which Dr. Tyndall responded, and I quote, 'You should open up more clinics so they can stop having so many babies,'" Shernae Hughes, a recent USC graduate, said.

Newsy reported in July a total of 225 women were suing USC over the way it handled complaints of sexual harassment against Tyndall. The University of Southern California's president stepped down following criticism over how the school handled the claims of sexual misconduct.

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White House Aides Reportedly Got Into ‘Explosive’ Shouting Match

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Two of President Donald Trump's aides reportedly got into quite the argument Thursday over immigration policies. 

Various outlets described the shouting match between White House Chief of Staff John Kelly and National Security Adviser John Bolton as "explosive," "intense" and "profane."

Kelly and Bolton were reportedly arguing about border crossings and Kirstjen Nielsen's performance as Department of Homeland Security secretary.

CNN reported Bolton criticized Nielsen, while Kelly stuck up for her. Nielsen and Kelly do have a bit of history — she was Kelly's deputy at the DHS before he left for a job in the West Wing. 

The argument came the same day The Washington Post reported the number of migrant families crossing into the U.S. has reached a record high since the Trump administration backed away from its "zero-tolerance" policy in July that caused family separations at the border.  

Trump told reporters he didn't know about Bolton and Kelly's tiff as he left Washington D.C. for a campaign rally in Montana Thursday. 

White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders later issued a statement saying there were no hard feelings between the two aides. 

Additional reporting from Newsy affiliate CNN

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Trump Commends Congressman Who ‘Body Slammed’ Guardian Reporter

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President Donald Trump commended a Montana congressman for physically assaulting a reporter last year.

"Any guy who can do a body slam, he's my guy!" Trump said.

During a rally in Montana Thursday, Trump praised Rep. Greg Gianforte for "body slamming" a Guardian reporter at a campaign event.

"But Greg is smart and, by the way, never wrestle him, you understand that, never," Trump said.

The editor for the Guardian U.S. responded to Trump's comments in a statement, saying: "To celebrate an attack on a journalist who was simply doing his job is an attack on the first amendment by someone who has taken an oath to defend it."

Not long after the May 2017 incident, Gianforte was sentenced to community service and 20 hours of anger management courses after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor assault charge. He formally apologized to the reporter and promised to donate $50,000 to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Gianforte is running for re-election this year.

Additional reporting from Newsy affiliate CNN.

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Pompeo In Mexico Friday As Migrant Caravan Approaches Border

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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is meeting with officials in Mexico City Friday, as thousands of migrants continue trekking toward the U.S.-Mexico border. 

The caravan — which started its journey in Honduras on Oct. 12 with about 160 people — now consists of at least 3,000 individuals. 

The Associated Press reported most of the migrants made it to a town on the Guatemala-Mexico border by Thursday evening. In preparation for their arrival, the Mexican government reportedly sent hundreds of federal police officers to step up security on its side of the border. 

Mexico is seeking assistance from the United Nations refugee agency to help identify which migrants have legitimate asylum claims. Individuals will need to apply for refugee status if they don't have the proper travel documents allowing them to enter the country. 

This stepped up enforcement came the same day President Donald Trump threatened to close the U.S.'s border with Mexico over the caravan. He's also threatened to cut aid to Central American countries that allow the migrants to pass.

Additional reporting from Newsy affiliate CNN

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Major Sports Leagues Could Stand To Gain Billions From Legal Betting

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Major league basketball, football, baseball and hockey could stand to make more than $4.2 billion combined through legalized sports betting, according to a recent study.

The Nielsen Sports study, which was commissioned by the American Gaming Association, surveyed more than 1,000 sports fans and sports bettors across the country to predict how a nationwide legal sports betting market would affect consumers of the four major U.S. sports leagues, and what kind of revenue could be generated. This includes revenue through TV advertisements and sponsorship deals from said services, as well as indirect earnings from media rights, merchandise and ticket sales.

With all of that taken into account, the study estimates the NHL could make an additional $216 million annually, while the NBA could gain $585 million. MLB stands to make more than $1.1 billion annually, while the NFL stands to make more than $2.3 billion.

The U.S. Supreme Court voted in May to remove federal sports gambling restrictions and leave it up to individual states to choose whether to legalize it or not. Since then, sports betting is now legal in New Jersey, Delaware, Mississippi, Nevada and West Virginia.

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Fact-Checking Kanye West’s Wisconsin Jobs Claim

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You've probably heard a lot about Kanye West's latest foray into politics. It came in a recent trip to the Oval Office. His ranting had elements of various political and social arguments. In the process, he made a couple fact-checkable claims.

Namely, on the economy.

"We can empower our factories," West said, "so we can bring not only Adidas on shore, we can bring Foxconn and set up a factory in, I think, Minnesota. 53,000 — "

"Wisconsin, yeah, Wisconsin," President Donald Trump interrupted.

"Yeah, in Wisconsin," West said. "They got 4,000 jobs, people making $53,000 a year."

The message there is accurate, but technically those jobs don't exist yet. And the $53,000-a-year figure is an average. That doesn't mean that's what everyone is making.

West is talking about a deal Foxconn struck with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. The Taiwanese company said it will invest up to $10 billion in a new factory that could employ up to 13,000 people. Wisconsin has agreed to give the company $150 million in tax breaks. If Foxconn invests at least $9 billion and employs those 13,000 people, the state will pay the company an additional $2.85 billion.

Crews have broken ground on the facility, but Foxconn isn't actually manufacturing anything there yet. West said 4,000 people will work at the facility. Initially, Foxconn plans to bring in 3,000 workers, and eventually it aims to employ 13,000.

On salaries: West said employees at this plant will bring in $53,000 a year. The agreement says average pay will actually amount to more than that: $53,875. But that's average. Salaries up to $400,000 a year will be counted in that average, so some people could be making a lot less than $53,000.

Foxconn plans to have 13,000 workers at the new plant by 2023. 

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Does The President Owe Elizabeth Warren A $1 Million Donation?

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After Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren released results of her DNA test revealing a Native American ancestor, a comment from the president over the summer became instantly relevant again.

"I will give you a million dollars to your favorite charity, paid for by Trump, if you take the test and it shows you're an Indian," President Donald Trump said at a July rally in Montana.

The day she released the results, Warren tweeted about a charity that works to protect Native women from violence. She said, "Send them your $1M check, @realDonaldTrump."

"I didn't say that, I didn't — you better read it again," Trump said the same day.

At the July rally, President Trump seemed to frame the offer pretty specifically. 

"Let's say I'm debating Pocahontas, right?" He said. "I'm gonna get one of those little kits, and in the middle of the debate, when she proclaims that she's of Indian heritage ... and we will very gently take that kit, and we will slowly toss it ... and we will say, 'I will give you a million dollars to your favorite charity, paid for by Trump, if you take the test and it shows you're an Indian.'"

Take that for what you will. Regardless of the conditions of the pledge, it's probably more valuable to understand what Warren's DNA test actually tells us.

Experts who talked to Politifact said the findings are sound. One said the methods Warren's researcher used are "among the most robust methods today." 

Warren's Native American ancestry goes back 6 to 10 generations, so that's likely 150 to 250 years ago. Maybe as far back as 1700.

As far as Warren's claim to Cherokee heritage, the genetic markers don't tell us anything about a specific tribe. But experts say the DNA results are consistent with her story. 

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Does The President Owe Elizabeth Warren A $1 Million Donation?

Read more of this story here from Newsy Headlines by Newsy Headlines.


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After Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren released results of her DNA test revealing a Native American ancestor, a comment from the president over the summer became instantly relevant again."I will give you a million dollars to your favorite charity, paid for by Trump, if you take the test and it shows you're an Indian," President Donald Trump said at a July rally in Montana.

The day she released the results, Warren tweeted about a charity that works to protect Native women from violence. She said, "Send them your $1M check, @realDonaldTrump."

"I didn't say that, I didn't — you better read it again," Trump said the same day.

At the July rally, President Trump seemed to frame the offer pretty specifically. 

"Let's say I'm debating Pocahontas, right?" He said. "I'm gonna get one of those little kits, and in the middle of the debate, when she proclaims that she's of Indian heritage ... and we will very gently take that kit, and we will slowly toss it ... and we will say, 'I will give you a million dollars to your favorite charity, paid for by Trump, if you take the test and it shows you're an Indian.'"

Take that for what you will. Regardless of the conditions of the pledge, it's probably more valuable to understand what Warren's DNA test actually tells us.

Experts who talked to Politifact said the findings are sound. One said the methods Warren's researcher used are "among the most robust methods today." 

Warren's Native American ancestry goes back 6 to 10 generations, so that's likely 150 to 250 years ago. Maybe as far back as 1700.

As far as Warren's claim to Cherokee heritage, the genetic markers don't tell us anything about a specific tribe. But experts say the DNA results are consistent with her story. 

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